Soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo, the Oscar nominations happened. On January 23rd. Over a week ago now. I wanted to share my thoughts on the spot when, you know, it would’ve been relevant. Problem was, I simply had not seen any of these movies!!! I had seen maybe… three? If even. Naturally I got to binge watching, and I cut it VERY close! I didn’t think I’d get this up by the end of the month.
I’ve never been one to binge-watch all of the major Oscar Best Picture nominated films. I think the last time I tried to do that was in 2021 because… shit, what else was I going to do in 2021? And before that I tried in 2014…. Anyways! Full disclosure, I wasn’t able to be a completionist for this year as well… yet, at least. It was not for lack of trying. American Fiction and The Zone of Interest, for the life of me, I could not access in any preferable way. I hear mostly great things, and I will be watching them as soon as I possibly can, but I just have to move forward with that blind-spot, I’m afraid.
I couldn’t share my takes completely uninformed, though. I tried to watch literally just about everything else nominated in the “major” categories (I kind of just chose however many categories I could fix into the character limit) because... How was I supposed to claim Lily Gladstone should win Best Actress if they were the only nominated performance I had seen, you know?
BEST PICTURE:
American Fiction (Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers)
Anatomy of a Fall (Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers)
Barbie (David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers)
The Holdovers (Mark Johnson, Producer)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers)
Maestro (Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers)
Oppenheimer (Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers)
Past Lives (David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler, Producers)
Poor Things (Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers)
The Zone of Interest (James Wilson, Producer)
PERSONAL PICK: Past Lives
PREDICTION: Oppenheimer
As far as Best Picture lineups go, this is a solid list.
I’m not the biggest fan of Oppenheimer. At all, really. I have several issues with its script, actually. I’m just happy that a decent film is the front-runner! Lord, I’ll take it! It was technically very impressively made. I couldn’t cover every category in this issue, but I believe Oppenheimer could realistically take almost every technical category it is nominated for. ESPECIALLY sound and editing. I knew it’d be well-made, but it took me out just how expertly made the film was in those specific aspects.
This may be a bit of an overkill, but I don’t believe this to be a particularly close race. For a while I thought The Holdovers might be the one to gag Oppenheimer out of a trophy, but from my perspective the momentum seems to have stalled. Truthfully, I’m quite happy about that! If you know me well enough, you know I’m an Alexander Payne hater first. His “Snub” (lmfaooooo) for Best Director made my entire month worth it. God was in the room!!! All things aside, I also just generally thought The Holdovers was… cute. At best. Not the worst movie, but also not allllll that it was made out to be. Glorious performances, though, particularly from Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Dominic Sessa, love both of them!
I just think this is Oppenheimer’s category to lose. I don’t think there will be any surprises.
As for what I would want, I’m always a Past Lives truther. I know, I know. It kind of became #A #Thing to hate on Past Lives. I can respect some perspectives and criticisms; nobody has to like any film after all. I just can’t personally agree with all of them either. When everyone was discussing the Margot/Greta “snubs,” I was like… can we raise some commotion for Greta and Celine (who, to be fair, did get her well-deserved 10s for screenplay)?!?! Speaking of which, it’s no secret I love Barbie. I wrote an entire issue on it. I understand where one may argue it fell short, but I don’t engage with it as cynical as others…. Though, the past week has been… a lot. We’ll circle back to that.
Anatomy of a Fall is a decent candidate. It got in a LOT of the major categories. I wouldn’t be surprised if it left with a trophy, even if I’m not actively predicting it in anything. To me, the film didn’t all land in the end, but it is a compelling approach to a tired setting and concept.
Killers of the Flower Moon is an absolute favorite of mine. Top 3 of my overall 2023 ranking, actually. I have my issues, but I find it to be an overall really stunning feature with a near-perfect ensemble (raise some commotion for Cara Jade Myers!!!). If a movie were to upset Oppenheimer’s victory, I think I would prefer it to be this one, though, again, I’m definitely not counting on it.
I don’t respect anything about Maestro. We move.
Again, I never got to watch The Zone of Interest or American Fiction. I apologize. I will get to both as soon as possible, I promise you.
BEST DIRECTING
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
PERSONAL PICK: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
PREDICTION: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
A very solid line up, though we will discuss some snubs later on. I’m just relieved Alexander Payne isn’t getting shit!!!
I would not be upset about anybody winning this category, but I still just think Christopher Nolan is ahead by a bit. Full disclosure, I haven’t seen The Zone of Interest yet, and Nolan isn’t my personal pick by any stretch. I do think Oppy is well-directed, though. I just can’t imagine anyone else taking his trophy here.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
PERSONAL PICK: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
PREDICTION: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
This is a closer one. While I do believe this is Cillian Murphy’s category, Paul Giamatti does have a very strong chance as well. As I implied earlier, one of my predictions before the nominations came out was that The Holdovers was going to be a PROBLEM in every lineup. The momentum wasn’t as strong as I had expected in nominations, still I believe it will still make noise in the categories it got in. Particularly this one. You gotta keep an eye on Paul!
Being said, I do think Cillian is winning, and it will be very deserved. I didn’t care for the film too much, but Cillian had the most demanding role. Probably one of the most demanding roles of the year. Three hours where he’s on screen for most of the time, and he turned in quite a powerful performance that could’ve fallen flat in lesser hands. I respect it. I genuinely believe his performance was better than Paul Giamatti’s, and I do think it will reflect in results. No disrespect to Paul. We love Big Fat Liar in this household.
I haven’t counted Bradley Cooper out entirely, but the Maestro campaign really lost steam. Deserved. I don’t think he’s untalented, I believe he’ll get his Oscar one day… but uh… yeah. All of his work in Maestro was… rough! If you let me tell it. He was out of his range. It was a big swing to direct, write, and star in this, and did he do it gracefully? Well, no. He still got his Oscar nominations, so I guess he got the last laugh. He’ll have to wait his turn to call himself an Oscar winner, though, because it’s not looking good for this year.
Colman Domingo makes a decent case for my favorite performance in this line-up, although I’m excited to watch Jeffrey Wright’s performance as well. The only thing preventing me from naming Colman’s performance as my personal pick is I just wasn’t particularly fond of Rustin. I think Cillian got the stronger material to work with, but Colman is a total star! I’m happy he’s getting this moment.
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)
PERSONAL PICK: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
PREDICTION: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon or Emma Stone, Poor Things
Let me just address the elephant in the line-up… I love Annette Bening as an actress. Nothing but respect to Annette Bening. Now, with that being said… NYAD? Excuse me… NYAD?????? NYAD is not a movie that needed a single nomination. Even for icons of the status of Annette or Jodie, I’m so sorry to say. It bothers me more with Annette because Best Actress was a stacked category this year, and to waste a slot to give to a Lifetime Biopic-tier film, that won’t change Annette’s career in any way… It’s a little disappointing, although not quite surprising. I emphasize that this has nothing to do with Annette’s talent, I just don’t believe this is to have been a role that was worthy to take up a spot in this line-up. It still just feels like a fake movie to me.
Anyways, I do believe Emma Stone has started to gain a bit of a lead over Lily Gladstone in this category, but I’m never giving up on the Lily Gladstone Oscar campaign. I don’t think she’s out of the equation, nor should they be, as loud as the deniers may try to be. Lily Gladstone gave the best performance of 2023. I truly believe that, and even if I wasn’t confident in that belief, none of the other four nominees in this category would be the case I would make if I tried to argue that point. I say this comfortably. I haven’t rewatch this film yet, but the scene with Lily and Leo near the end, if I remember correctly it might have been their last scene together, is some of the best acting I’ve seen in my entire life. Lily Gladstone has so much control over this movie, and I fully believe she had every right to be campaigned in lead. That discourse slightly confused me considering the role of Mollie is… integral. The heart of the film. The organs. The blood. The oxygen. The key to the plot. The presence of Mollie is felt throughout every second of the runtime, and Lily is why the role is equally as impactful when she’s not on screen. Some deliveries of theirs still haunt me. I consider it to be a masterclass of acting.
Don’t think of me saying that I believe Lily should win to be some sort of diss at Emma Stone, either. If Emma Stone does win, I won’t be that mad. Some of the discourse in Film Spaces got annoying fast, as they tend to go, which made me sour on the Emma Stone campaign, but I just watched Poor Things and I find it hard to imagine any of Emma’s peers giving the performance of Bella Baxter as effectively as she did. She’s a great actress, and she works wonders with Yorgos Lanthimos. Also, Emma Stone has accomplished a lot within the past 15 years, I’d like to appreciate that right now. She’s certainly shaping herself up to be one of the film icons of her generation.
On the other side of the coin, Carey Mulligan wants an Oscar so bad. One day, maybe she’ll get it. She’s talented enough. There’s this idea that I have beef with her because I hate Promising Young Woman… and honestly, I’ve grown enough that I can recognize that was not her fault… HOWEVER, now that she’s done this… I want to see eye to eye with her so bad, and she makes it so hard! Carey wasn’t bad in Maestro, don’t get me wrong. Just truthfully, she wouldn’t have been in MY Best Actress line-up. It was just a very… obvious performance. She had very strong moments throughout, though. Definitely a stronger candidate than any of the acting in NYAD, I will give her that.
Anatomy of a Fall has become an Awards Season favorite on my timeline. On top of that, Sandra Hüller has become the sleeper hit timeline pick for Best Actress in certain spaces. I don’t think she has enough momentum to upset either Stone’s chances come Oscar Night, but I would safely put her in third place of the race currently. Deserved. It was a very great performance. I mentioned earlier that the movie didn’t all land for me, but the gray area of not being sure of Sandra’s innocence or guilt was masterfully delivered upon through Sandra Hüller’s performance. Most of what worked about this movie was thanks to her performance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
PERSONAL PICK: Robert De Niro, perhaps? Killers of the Flower Moon
PREDICTION: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Although he isn’t my personal pick or prediction, I don’t think you can count Ryan Gosling out in this category. Do I think Ryan Gosling gave the best supporting performance of 2023? Well… not really. He wasn’t even my favorite performance in the Barbie movie, and I’ve said that on multiple occasions. However, I think people exaggerate how ridiculous the suggestion is because they don’t respect the art of comedic acting, which is an opinion I’ve always stood ten toes down behind. Being said, that isn’t a hill I’m prepared to die on for Ryan’s performance as Ken. The Nice Guys would be a better example of how much smarter Ryan Gosling is than a lot of his peers at comedy. I just feel as though a lot of people act as though Ryan winning this category would be outrageous, and… they really need to cope, I’m sorry, because he’s not out of the race.
I say that to say, I do believe this is another category where Oppenheimer is the clear front-runner. This might seem unserious after I just lightly praised Ryan Gosling’s performance in Barbie, but… I actually wasn’t particularly impressed by Robert Downey Jr.’s performance in Oppenheimer. In fairness, I watched Oppenheimer for the first-time last week. I’ve witnessed an entire Oscar campaign rise; I watched Robert Downey Jr. win multiple awards. A certain expectation did arise in my head of how good Robert Downey Jr. would be… and he wasn’t bad, don’t get me wrong. I won’t mind him winning. But… ehhh, is he MY best supporting actor? Maybe not. Still, he’s probably winning, so my opinion has no stake. Nothing was wrong with his performance. I was just never quite immersed in his work, and there was a high standard going in. I wish I liked it more! When he wins, I will be fine with it, still.
Robert De Niro on the other hand!!! One of my issues with Killers of the Flower Moon was that I felt it was too heavily concerned with Ernest and William’s perspectives, when I felt it should’ve been more centered in Mollie’s Point of View, and I do stand by that. HOWEVER!!!! Robert De Niro kind of gave one of the best performances of the year, and likely the all-timer best performance I’ve seen of his career to date. Watching this film made me think about how I just HAVE to go back and watch all of the Scorsese-De Niro collaborations one day because they work tooooooo well together. I haven’t done any of that yet, but if this is any indication, I just know they’ve been cooking for decades now. This role above all else is so… scary, because he poses as such a champion and a leader in the Osage Nation, while actively plotting a genocide against them. Robert has to play into a charismatic and friendly facade, while also being pure evil beneath the surface. He does that balance in a way not many could succeed at playing. Being said, Robert De Niro is not putting up a fight for this Oscar. If you let me tell it, Killers of the Flower Moon is actually getting paid a bit too much dust this awards season for being one of the best films of the year.
One of my secret truths is that there’s a Mark Ruffalo enthusiast inside of me that I have to keep silenced 99% of the time I’m alive. Luckily, Poor Things wasn’t the project to reawaken something in me, but I will say I’m quite pleased he got in here. He was good! He did a lot, but he did a lot in a way that I think worked for the film. If I were to pick my 5 supporting actor performances of 2023, perhaps he’d be in my list. Good for Mark Ruffalo. More importantly, good for us, the Mark Ruffalo enjoyer community!
I’m thrilled Sterling K. Brown is Oscar nominated! He is one of the best working actors. Again, I have still not seen American Fiction, so I can’t speak on that. Either way, I consider his nomination to be the victory here. This is Us hive, we’re up! Susan Kelechi Watson, we will get your Oscar vehicle moving next.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
America Ferrera (Barbie)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
PERSONAL PICK: Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
PREDICTION: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers…. Like, duh.
If there were a category that has been locked from day one, it is this one. If an upset were to occur, the Earth might have to crumble, because something CRAZY would be afoot. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has swept in this category. It hasn’t even been a competition. Now, I’m sure you know this is a conflict in me considering I hate that an Alexander Payne film has to get anything, but let it be known that I find this to be… deserved. Da’Vine is a fantastic actress and has been due for some award consideration in the past. I’m happy she’s getting this moment.
Being said, if I made the calls, I would give it to Danielle Brooks. The Color Purple campaign… well, wow. That sure fell apart. Danielle Brooks being the only nomination is not necessarily surprising because I followed this award season semi-closely, but it would have been surprising had you told me this just 3 months ago. However, if the film had to have only gotten in one category, I’m happy it’s for now EGOT-nominated Danielle Brooks! The dinner table scene alone had her locked in my head. The way she can flip emotions and take control of a scene just within a single half-second is other-worldly.
Nothing in the world could possibly make me feel negatively about America Ferrera being nominated for a major award. That’s a mother. Would I have nominated her for Barbie? Probably not. One of my longest standing criticisms of Barbie is that Gloria was never a fully realized character. I feel as though a lot of issues people have with her monologue stem from the fact that she delivers it despite us knowing next to nothing about her as a human being before she’s pushed into being the mouthpiece of the major theme of the movie. If she had gotten a chance for expansion or development, people wouldn’t find the movie itself so hollow. Ultimately, America Ferrera did what she could, and she’s still a highlight of a good movie, in my opinion. She is not the same as Jamie Lee Curtis’ nomination or win last year in any real way, ‘kay?
A take I might get some backlash for is that I believe Emily Blunt suffered from a similar problem as America Ferrera in their respective films. A near-thankless role but because she had two scenes in the last hour, she managed to get herself into awards conversation. I wouldn’t say her nomination is undeserved, but I really don’t find this to be a particularly compelling role by any means. Emily Blunt is just a solid actress. Her first Oscar nomination should’ve been for Devil Wears Prada!
Jodie Foster being here upsets me less than Annette Bening being in Best Actress, because Best Supporting Actress feels like it’s always thee category for thee Legacy Acts to sneak in. I would find it really hard to believe that anybody earnestly considers Jodie Foster in NYAD to be the Best Supporting Performance of 2023. She’s just a film legend who did an Oscar bait film in 2023, and they needed a 5th slot to fill up the Best Supporting Actress line-up… here you go, Jodie Foster! Get your things! Sure!
BEST WRITING (ADAPTED)
American Fiction (Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson)
Barbie (Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach)
Oppenheimer (Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan)
Poor Things (Screenplay by Tony McNamara)
The Zone of Interest (Written by Jonathan Glazer)
Prediction: Barbie
This may be a bold claim, but I think this will be the apology prize to Barbie after getting “snubbed” in director. You know how it was kind of commonly accepted that Barbie was very likely going to win original screenplay? I feel as though that will also trickle down over to here. As always, though, I can’t fully count out Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer is an all-around threat in everything.
This is the one category where I don’t have any “Personal Pick” because… I haven’t seen two out of five of these movies. Those are two movies I’ve also heard some praise for and could very realistically shake up my personal perception of this category especially. Added onto that, I actually have some decent criticisms for every other film nominated in this line-up. There is no easy winner in my mind.
BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL)
Anatomy of a Fall (Screenplay by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari)
The Holdovers (Written by David Hemingson)
Maestro (Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
May December (Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik)
Past Lives (Written by Celine Song)
Personal Pick: Past Lives
Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall or The Holdovers
I had once thought that The Holdovers was going to be hard to beat in this category, but Anatomy of a Fall might have taken a (deserved!) lead. The Holdovers isn’t out, by any means, I do think it’s a heavy contender come Oscar night in just about every category it’s nominated in. Truthfully, though, Anatomy of a Fall is just all around the better written film.
The Maestro nomination is crazy, but I don’t know if I should fully count it out. If they wanted Bradley to stop terrorizing them with bad Oscar bait, it’d be like a participation trophy.
May December… just know it’s an HONOR to be nominated!!
Again, my choice would be Past Lives. Others have accused it of being too shallow, too on the nose, all types of criticisms. They have every right to feel any type of way about a film, nobody is an authority of anybody else’s opinion. I just find it to quite stunning. I don’t think something has to be stooped in metaphors to be well written, I find it to be emotionally affecting as it stands. I would really love for Celine Song to take this Oscar.
SNUBS
Okay. The Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig of it all. I’ve discussed this on Twitter a few times. Let me start by saying, Barbie is very likely my favorite movie of the year, and I have said several times that I believe Margot’s performance was being underrated, since day one!!!! Being said, I am happy with the nominations they have gotten. The reaction was slightly befuddling to me, because… where did you all… come from? Yes, the movie was a phenomenon and has a massive following, but it felt like during this award run nobody was really on the Barbie train until… after the nominations… How does that work? Margot is still nominated as Producer for Best Picture. Greta is still nominated for writing. There’s nothing that egregious going on here. I do believe there’s room for further discussion, but the way the discourse went… does kind of leave me confused. Like, Hillary Clinton… what are you doing here?
Greta Lee, Past Lives. In my head, there is just no world where she shouldn’t have gotten in. I suppose this doubles as a spot for Teo Yoo, perhaps even throw John Magaro in here, but something about Greta Lee’s acting just reallly… hits. She can do so much with just a single glance!!!!!!!!
The Iron Claw, specifically Zac Efron. I haven’t actually seen this yet, but I wanted to mention it anyways, because it gained a lot of late-stage hype. Every few years Zac Efron has his “serious” breakout role, and they never quite reach the Oscars. Being said, I have heard his performance is one of the best of the year, and it’s the closest he’s gotten to the Oscars stage. I have no reason to believe everybody is lying, though still it was clear from quite early on this wasn’t going to be his year either, as deserving as he may be. However, I believe under a different campaign and rollout, he would have gotten in. This movie gained quite a bit of buzz over time, was a financial success, got quite a bit of acclaim. It’s a step forward in everybody’s involved career. I believe most of the cast here are one more great role away from getting their Oscar nomination. This is like the loss they need to circle back around to victory. Zac Efron, if you are in line for an Oscar, STAY IN LINE!!!
May December, specifically Charles Melton and Julianne Moore in Supporting Actor and Actress. I’m going to be honest. I noticed the trajectory was going downhill for Charles a while back. He was already starting to get overlooked, but once Vili Fualaau spoke out about not getting asked about the production of this film, it just really didn’t help any case. This isn’t the Golden Globes. The Oscars pretend they have a brand of class to uphold. That’s exactly when I divested, though I still predicted both performances to get in. I just knew this was a possibility. To be honest, I was never as crazy invested in the Charles Melton campaign, but I do think he’d be a better nomination than… a solid 3 out of 5 of the actors that did get nominated. Julianne Moore, however, gave one of my favorite performances of the year. That was personal. And in favor of… Jodie Foster?!?!?!!?! Rachel McAdams for Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret. should’ve gotten in over Jodie Foster as well, but she didn’t even leave her house during the campaign run, so I can’t be too upset about that.
Saltburn wasn’t snubbed. It’s just an awful movie.
As for two particular snubs we knew were coming… Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One, and Trace Lysette, Monica, are two actresses who were left out of so many conversations. If you were to discuss best performances of the decade so far, they should be ranked amongst them, I’m so sorry. You can’t speak on snubs without knowing these two performances. I implore everybody reading to close out of this and go watch A Thousand and One and Monica. These will age as some of the most overlooked performances of this decade, I guarantee you.
ANYWAYS… if my calculations are correct, Oppenheimer is likely going to be leaving with the most awards. I feel safe in saying that. It has the most nominations, but also is at least one of the top two frontrunner in almost all of its categories. I don’t see a major upset happening with that much. I don’t think the other movies will be completely shut out. I’m not predicting a sweep… but Oppenheimer has become the one to beat come Oscar night.